Huachipato 1–2 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Colo Colo

T. Vecino 74'

E. Wiemberg 73'

M. Bolados 36'

10/13/2024

Primera División · Round 18Estadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Huachipato41%

×Draw27%

Colo Colo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Huachipato

1.35

Colo Colo

1.17

Huachipato creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.61

creates per match

1.08

1.26

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Huachipato

1.61

Colo Colo

1.08

allows per match

Huachipato

1.26

Colo Colo

1.09

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Huachipato+0.56scores more

Colo Colo+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

68%

Huachipato or Colo Colo

73%

Draw or Colo Colo

59%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

19%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

74%

Huachipato 2+ goals

39%

Huachipato 3+ goals

15%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

69%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

33%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

56%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.61 + Colo Colo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Colo Colo attack 1.08 + Huachipato defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huachipato scores more

41%

level

27%

Colo Colo scores more

32%

Huachipato at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

F. De Paul

Colo Colo · G

8.3

Match Events

36'

M. Bolados↳ A. Saldivia

46'

C. Martínez← S. Sáez

46'

J. Brea← R. Malanca

58'

V. Pizarro← G. Castellani

61'

C. Villanueva← C. Sepúlveda

64'

C. Zavala← M. Bolados

70'

70'

70'

70'

73'

E. Wiemberg↳ C. Zavala

74'

T. Vecino↳ J. Brea

76'

L. Díaz← I. González

76'

C. Riquelme← L. Gil

76'

Ó. Opazo← A. Saldivia

90+4'

Antonio Castillo

90+6'

Guillermo Paiva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoColo

Overview

28%Possession72%

9Total Shots11

4Corners2

15Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots11

7On Target6

1Off Target4

1Blocked1

8Inside Box6

1Outside Box5

Passing

28%Possession72%

264Total Passes696

174Accurate Passes595

66%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls5

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Primera División: Huachipato 1–2 Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Huachipato 2-1 in Primera División on October 13, 2024.

Goals: M. Bolados (36'), E. Wiemberg (73'), T. Vecino (74').

Colo Colo controlled possession (72%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio CAP in Talcahuano.

Huachipato vs Colo Colo — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Huachipato 1–2 Colo Colo