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Huachipato vs Cobreloa — Primera División 2018

Huachipato
Huachipato
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cobreloa
Cobreloa
7/19/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16Estadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huachipato63%
×Draw21%
Cobreloa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huachipato
2.06
Cobreloa
0.94

Huachipato creates 119% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 15 away

creates per match

Huachipato
1.45
Cobreloa
0.87

allows per match

Huachipato
1.00
Cobreloa
2.67

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par
Cobreloa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Cobreloa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw
84%
Huachipato or Cobreloa
79%
Draw or Cobreloa
37%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+
39%
Cobreloa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals
87%
Huachipato 2+ goals
61%
Huachipato 3+ goals
34%
Cobreloa 1+ goals
61%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
24%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)
79%
Cobreloa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 127 matches

Cobreloa away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.45 + Cobreloa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.06

Cobreloa attack 0.87 + Huachipato defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Huachipato scores more
63%
level
21%
Cobreloa scores more
16%

Huachipato at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huachipato vs Cobreloa

Huachipato and Cobreloa drew 1-1 in Primera División on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CAP in Talcahuano.