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Huachipato vs 12 de Octubre — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Huachipato
Huachipato
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
4/28/2021CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Sausalito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Huachipato28%
×Draw37%
12 de Octubre35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huachipato
0.67
12 de Octubre
0.79

12 de Octubre creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Huachipato
1.00
12 de Octubre
0.33

allows per match

Huachipato
1.25
12 de Octubre
0.33

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw
65%
Huachipato or 12 de Octubre
63%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
72%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+
8%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals
49%
Huachipato 2+ goals
15%
Huachipato 3+ goals
3%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
55%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
19%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)
44%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.00 + 12 de Octubre defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

12 de Octubre attack 0.33 + Huachipato defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Huachipato scores more
28%
level
37%
12 de Octubre scores more
35%

12 de Octubre at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "12 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Huachipato 0–0 12 de Octubre

Huachipato and 12 de Octubre drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Sausalito in Viña del Mar.