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Hua Hin Maraleina vs Pathum Thani University — League Cup 2021

Hua Hin Maraleina
Hua Hin Maraleina
FT
7 – 2
Pathum Thani University
Pathum Thani University
9/10/2023League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundValaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hua Hin Maraleina66%
×Draw17%
Pathum Thani University16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hua Hin Maraleina
2.63
Pathum Thani University
1.25

Hua Hin Maraleina creates 110% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hua Hin Maraleina
2.25
Pathum Thani University
1.00

allows per match

Hua Hin Maraleina
1.50
Pathum Thani University
3.00

finishing

Hua Hin Maraleina+0.00on par
Pathum Thani University+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hua Hin Maraleina ↓

Pathum Thani University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hua Hin Maraleina or draw
84%
Hua Hin Maraleina or Pathum Thani University
83%
Draw or Pathum Thani University
34%

Winning margin

Hua Hin Maraleina wins by 2+
45%
Pathum Thani University wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hua Hin Maraleina 1+ goals
93%
Hua Hin Maraleina 2+ goals
73%
Hua Hin Maraleina 3+ goals
48%
Pathum Thani University 1+ goals
71%
Pathum Thani University 2+ goals
36%
Pathum Thani University 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hua Hin Maraleina (draw refunded)
80%
Pathum Thani University (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hua Hin Maraleina at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Pathum Thani University away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hua Hin Maraleina attack 2.25 + Pathum Thani University defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Pathum Thani University attack 1.00 + Hua Hin Maraleina defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hua Hin Maraleina scores more
66%
level
17%
Pathum Thani University scores more
16%

Hua Hin Maraleina at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hua Hin Maraleina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Hua Hin Maraleina 7–2 Pathum Thani University

Hua Hin Maraleina beat Pathum Thani University 7-2 in League Cup on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Valaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University Stadium in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Bang Pa-in District.