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Hua Hin Maraleina vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — League Cup 2021

Hua Hin Maraleina
Hua Hin Maraleina
FT
0 – 1
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
10/25/2023League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsValaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hua Hin Maraleina35%
×Draw25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hua Hin Maraleina
1.38
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hua Hin Maraleina
2.25
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.50

allows per match

Hua Hin Maraleina
1.50
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.50

finishing

Hua Hin Maraleina+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hua Hin Maraleina ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hua Hin Maraleina or draw
60%
Hua Hin Maraleina or Nakhon Si Thammarat
75%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
65%

Winning margin

Hua Hin Maraleina wins by 2+
16%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hua Hin Maraleina 1+ goals
75%
Hua Hin Maraleina 2+ goals
40%
Hua Hin Maraleina 3+ goals
16%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
78%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
44%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hua Hin Maraleina (draw refunded)
46%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hua Hin Maraleina at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hua Hin Maraleina attack 2.25 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.50 + Hua Hin Maraleina defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hua Hin Maraleina scores more
35%
level
25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
40%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hua Hin Maraleina vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Nakhon Si Thammarat beat Hua Hin Maraleina 1-0 in League Cup on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Valaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University Stadium in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Bang Pa-in District.