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Hua Hin Maraleina vs Hua Hin City — League Cup 2021

Hua Hin Maraleina
Hua Hin Maraleina
FT
1 – 0
Hua Hin City
Hua Hin City
9/8/2024League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundHua Hin Municipality Stadium Khao Takiap

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hua Hin Maraleina58%
×Draw22%
Hua Hin City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hua Hin Maraleina
1.96
Hua Hin City
1.08

Hua Hin Maraleina creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hua Hin Maraleina
2.25
Hua Hin City
0.67

allows per match

Hua Hin Maraleina
1.50
Hua Hin City
1.67

finishing

Hua Hin Maraleina+0.00on par
Hua Hin City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hua Hin Maraleina ↓

Hua Hin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hua Hin Maraleina or draw
79%
Hua Hin Maraleina or Hua Hin City
78%
Draw or Hua Hin City
42%

Winning margin

Hua Hin Maraleina wins by 2+
34%
Hua Hin City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hua Hin Maraleina 1+ goals
86%
Hua Hin Maraleina 2+ goals
58%
Hua Hin Maraleina 3+ goals
31%
Hua Hin City 1+ goals
66%
Hua Hin City 2+ goals
29%
Hua Hin City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hua Hin Maraleina (draw refunded)
74%
Hua Hin City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hua Hin Maraleina at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Hua Hin City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hua Hin Maraleina attack 2.25 + Hua Hin City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hua Hin City attack 0.67 + Hua Hin Maraleina defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hua Hin Maraleina scores more
58%
level
22%
Hua Hin City scores more
21%

Hua Hin Maraleina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hua Hin Maraleina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hua Hin Maraleina vs Hua Hin City

Hua Hin Maraleina beat Hua Hin City 1-0 in League Cup on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Hua Hin Municipality Stadium Khao Takiap in Prachuap Khiri Khan.