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HSV ODIN 59 vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
URK
URK
8/26/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 2Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HSV ODIN 5942%
×Draw21%
URK37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
2.00
URK
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
URK
1.65

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
URK
2.24

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
63%
HSV ODIN 59 or URK
79%
Draw or URK
58%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
23%
URK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
86%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
59%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
32%
URK 1+ goals
84%
URK 2+ goals
55%
URK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
53%
URK (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.00

URK attack 1.65 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
42%
level
21%
URK scores more
37%

HSV ODIN 59 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HSV ODIN 59 vs URK

HSV ODIN 59 and URK drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Assumburg in Heemskerk.