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HSV ODIN 59 vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
CANC
13:30
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
1/9/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 16Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

HSV ODIN 5944%
×Draw21%
Ter Leede35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
2.05
Ter Leede
1.81

HSV ODIN 59 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 45 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
65%
HSV ODIN 59 or Ter Leede
79%
Draw or Ter Leede
56%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
25%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
87%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
61%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
33%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
84%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
54%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
56%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
44%
level
21%
Ter Leede scores more
35%

HSV ODIN 59 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HSV ODIN 59 vs Ter Leede — Match Preview

HSV ODIN 59 face Ter Leede on January 9, 2021 in this Derde Divisie - Saturday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

HSV ODIN 59 host Ter Leede at Sportpark Assumburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.