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HSV ODIN 59 vs Staphorst — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Staphorst
Staphorst
9/30/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 7Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HSV ODIN 5941%
×Draw22%
Staphorst37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
1.80
Staphorst
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 71 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
Staphorst
1.32

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
Staphorst
1.85

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
Staphorst+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

Staphorst →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
63%
HSV ODIN 59 or Staphorst
78%
Draw or Staphorst
59%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
22%
Staphorst wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
83%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
54%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
27%
Staphorst 1+ goals
82%
Staphorst 2+ goals
51%
Staphorst 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
53%
Staphorst (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Staphorst away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + Staphorst defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

Staphorst attack 1.32 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
41%
level
22%
Staphorst scores more
37%

HSV ODIN 59 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HSV ODIN 59 vs Staphorst

Staphorst beat HSV ODIN 59 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Assumburg in Heemskerk.