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HSV ODIN 59 vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
FT
4 – 1
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
2/1/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 20Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

HSV ODIN 5962%
×Draw18%
ONS Sneek21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
2.71
ONS Sneek
1.54

HSV ODIN 59 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 12 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
79%
HSV ODIN 59 or ONS Sneek
82%
Draw or ONS Sneek
38%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
41%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
93%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
75%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
50%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
79%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
45%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
75%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
62%
level
18%
ONS Sneek scores more
21%

HSV ODIN 59 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HSV ODIN 59 vs ONS Sneek

HSV ODIN 59 beat ONS Sneek 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk).