HSV ODIN 59 0–3 DVS 33 Ermelo: Result & Stats

HSV ODIN 59

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

DVS 33 Ermelo

12/2/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 15Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HSV ODIN 5935%

×Draw22%

DVS 33 Ermelo42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HSV ODIN 59Expected goals in this matchDVS 33 Ermelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.81

HSV ODIN 59

1.63

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.81

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 100 away

1.75

creates per match

1.54

2.08

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59

1.75

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.54

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59

2.08

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw

58%

HSV ODIN 59 or DVS 33 Ermelo

78%

Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo

65%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+

17%

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals

80%

HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals

48%

HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals

22%

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals

84%

DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals

54%

DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)

45%

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more

35%

level

22%

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more

42%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff