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HSV ODIN 59 vs Barendrecht — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Barendrecht
Barendrecht
3/26/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 20Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HSV ODIN 5934%
×Draw22%
Barendrecht44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
1.71
Barendrecht
1.96

Barendrecht creates 15% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 50 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
Barendrecht
1.84

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
Barendrecht
1.68

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
Barendrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

Barendrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
56%
HSV ODIN 59 or Barendrecht
78%
Draw or Barendrecht
66%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
17%
Barendrecht wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
82%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
51%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
24%
Barendrecht 1+ goals
86%
Barendrecht 2+ goals
58%
Barendrecht 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
44%
Barendrecht (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Barendrecht away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.68 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + Barendrecht defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Barendrecht attack 1.84 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
34%
level
22%
Barendrecht scores more
44%

Barendrecht at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barendrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: HSV ODIN 59 2–2 Barendrecht

HSV ODIN 59 and Barendrecht drew 2-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Assumburg in Heemskerk.