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HSV ODIN 59 vs Almere City II — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
FT
2 – 1
Almere City II
Almere City II
9/21/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 5Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

HSV ODIN 5937%
×Draw21%
Almere City II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
1.92
Almere City II
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 11 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
Almere City II
2.00

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
Almere City II
2.09

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
58%
HSV ODIN 59 or Almere City II
79%
Draw or Almere City II
63%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
20%
Almere City II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
85%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
57%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
30%
Almere City II 1+ goals
87%
Almere City II 2+ goals
60%
Almere City II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
47%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + Almere City II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.92

Almere City II attack 2.00 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
37%
level
21%
Almere City II scores more
42%

Almere City II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: HSV ODIN 59 2–1 Almere City II

HSV ODIN 59 beat Almere City II 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk).