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HSV ODIN 59 vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
FT
1 – 0
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
12/7/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 15Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HSV ODIN 5945%
×Draw22%
Ajax Amateurs33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
1.90
Ajax Amateurs
1.60

HSV ODIN 59 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 49 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
67%
HSV ODIN 59 or Ajax Amateurs
78%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
55%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
25%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
85%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
56%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
29%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
80%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
47%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
58%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
45%
level
22%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
33%

HSV ODIN 59 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: HSV ODIN 59 1–0 Ajax Amateurs

HSV ODIN 59 beat Ajax Amateurs 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk).