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Ajax Amateurs vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
CANC
13:30
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
11/7/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 10Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ajax Amateurs48%
×Draw22%
HSV ODIN 5930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
2.01
HSV ODIN 59
1.55

Ajax Amateurs creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
70%
Ajax Amateurs or HSV ODIN 59
78%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
52%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
28%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
87%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
59%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
32%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
79%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
46%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
62%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.01

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
48%
level
22%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
30%

Ajax Amateurs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ajax Amateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ajax Amateurs host HSV ODIN 59

November 7, 2020: Ajax Amateurs take on HSV ODIN 59 in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ajax Amateurs host HSV ODIN 59 at Sportpark De Toekomst.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.