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Hsc 21 vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
URK
URK
5/18/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 33Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hsc 2138%
×Draw22%
URK40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.81
URK
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
1.39
URK
1.65

allows per match

Hsc 21
2.06
URK
2.24

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
60%
Hsc 21 or URK
78%
Draw or URK
62%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
20%
URK wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
84%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
54%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
27%
URK 1+ goals
84%
URK 2+ goals
55%
URK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
49%
URK (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 1.39 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

URK attack 1.65 + Hsc 21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
38%
level
22%
URK scores more
40%

URK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "URK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hsc 21 5–2 URK

Hsc 21 beat URK 5-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen in Haaksbergen.