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Hsc 21 vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
2 – 3
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
9/6/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 4Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hsc 2129%
×Draw22%
Sparta Nijkerk49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.48
Sparta Nijkerk
1.97

Sparta Nijkerk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 97 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
1.39
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

Hsc 21
2.06
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
51%
Hsc 21 or Sparta Nijkerk
78%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
71%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
13%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
77%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
43%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
19%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
86%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
58%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
37%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 1.39 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + Hsc 21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
29%
level
22%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
49%

Sparta Nijkerk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hsc 21 vs Sparta Nijkerk

Sparta Nijkerk beat Hsc 21 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen in Haaksbergen.