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Hsc 21 vs SC Genemuiden — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SC Genemuiden
SC Genemuiden
5/11/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 32Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hsc 2128%
×Draw23%
SC Genemuiden49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.34
SC Genemuiden
1.85

SC Genemuiden creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
1.39
SC Genemuiden
1.65

allows per match

Hsc 21
2.06
SC Genemuiden
1.29

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
SC Genemuiden+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

SC Genemuiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
51%
Hsc 21 or SC Genemuiden
77%
Draw or SC Genemuiden
72%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
12%
SC Genemuiden wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
74%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
39%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
15%
SC Genemuiden 1+ goals
84%
SC Genemuiden 2+ goals
55%
SC Genemuiden 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
36%
SC Genemuiden (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

SC Genemuiden away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 1.39 + SC Genemuiden defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

SC Genemuiden attack 1.65 + Hsc 21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
28%
level
23%
SC Genemuiden scores more
49%

SC Genemuiden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SC Genemuiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hsc 21 vs SC Genemuiden

Hsc 21 and SC Genemuiden drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen in Haaksbergen.