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Hsc 21 vs RKAV Volendam — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam
4/20/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 30Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hsc 2137%
×Draw22%
RKAV Volendam41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.80
RKAV Volendam
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
1.39
RKAV Volendam
1.74

allows per match

Hsc 21
2.06
RKAV Volendam
2.21

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
RKAV Volendam+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

RKAV Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
59%
Hsc 21 or RKAV Volendam
78%
Draw or RKAV Volendam
63%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
19%
RKAV Volendam wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
83%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
54%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
27%
RKAV Volendam 1+ goals
85%
RKAV Volendam 2+ goals
56%
RKAV Volendam 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
47%
RKAV Volendam (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

RKAV Volendam away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 1.39 + RKAV Volendam defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.80

RKAV Volendam attack 1.74 + Hsc 21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
37%
level
22%
RKAV Volendam scores more
41%

RKAV Volendam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RKAV Volendam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hsc 21 2–0 RKAV Volendam

Hsc 21 beat RKAV Volendam 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen in Haaksbergen.