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Hsc 21 vs OFC Oostzaan — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
CANC
13:30
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
2/21/2021Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Hsc 2145%
×Draw22%
OFC Oostzaan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.95
OFC Oostzaan
1.64

Hsc 21 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
2.29
OFC Oostzaan
1.74

allows per match

Hsc 21
1.54
OFC Oostzaan
1.61

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
67%
Hsc 21 or OFC Oostzaan
78%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
55%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
25%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
86%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
58%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
31%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
81%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
49%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
58%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 2.29 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.95

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.74 + Hsc 21 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
45%
level
22%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
33%

Hsc 21 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hsc 21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hsc 21 face OFC Oostzaan (Derde Divisie - Sunday)

Derde Divisie - Sunday returns with Hsc 21 hosting OFC Oostzaan. Match starts February 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.