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Hsc 21 vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
2/17/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 22Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hsc 2142%
×Draw22%
HSV ODIN 5936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.91
HSV ODIN 59
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
1.39
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

Hsc 21
2.06
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
64%
Hsc 21 or HSV ODIN 59
78%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
58%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
23%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
85%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
57%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
30%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
83%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
52%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
54%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 1.39 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.91

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Hsc 21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
42%
level
22%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
36%

Hsc 21 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hsc 21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Hsc 21 1–0 HSV ODIN 59

Hsc 21 beat HSV ODIN 59 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen in Haaksbergen.