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Hsc 21 vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hsc 21
Hsc 21
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
DEM
DEM
9/4/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 3Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hsc 2150%
×Draw22%
DEM28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hsc 21
1.91
DEM
1.39

Hsc 21 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hsc 21
2.29
DEM
1.23

allows per match

Hsc 21
1.54
DEM
1.52

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw
72%
Hsc 21 or DEM
78%
Draw or DEM
50%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+
28%
DEM wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals
85%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
57%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
30%
DEM 1+ goals
75%
DEM 2+ goals
40%
DEM 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
64%
DEM (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 2.29 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.91

DEM attack 1.23 + Hsc 21 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hsc 21 scores more
50%
level
22%
DEM scores more
28%

Hsc 21 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hsc 21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Hsc 21 5–0 DEM

Hsc 21 beat DEM 5-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen in Haaksbergen.