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DEM vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
8/25/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 2Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DEM44%
×Draw22%
Hsc 2134%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.93
Hsc 21
1.66

DEM creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

DEM
1.44
Hsc 21
1.41

allows per match

DEM
1.91
Hsc 21
2.41

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

DEM or draw
66%
DEM or Hsc 21
78%
Draw or Hsc 21
56%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
24%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
85%
DEM 2+ goals
57%
DEM 3+ goals
30%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
81%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
49%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
57%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.44 + Hsc 21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.93

Hsc 21 attack 1.41 + DEM defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

DEM scores more
44%
level
22%
Hsc 21 scores more
34%

DEM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DEM 2 – 1 Hsc 21

DEM beat Hsc 21 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.