Hsc 21 1–4 Ajax Amateurs: Result & Stats

Hsc 21

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ajax Amateurs

9/1/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 3Sportpark Groot Scholtenhagen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hsc 2141%

×Draw23%

Ajax Amateurs36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hsc 21Expected goals in this matchAjax Amateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.59

Hsc 21

1.71

Ajax Amateurs

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 49 away

1.39

creates per match

1.12

2.06

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Hsc 21

1.39

Ajax Amateurs

1.12

allows per match

Hsc 21

2.06

Ajax Amateurs

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hsc 21+0.00on par

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hsc 21 ↓

Ajax Amateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hsc 21 or draw

64%

Hsc 21 or Ajax Amateurs

77%

Draw or Ajax Amateurs

59%

Winning margin

Hsc 21 wins by 2+

21%

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hsc 21 1+ goals

82%

Hsc 21 2+ goals

51%

Hsc 21 3+ goals

24%

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals

80%

Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals

47%

Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hsc 21 (draw refunded)

53%

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hsc 21 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hsc 21 attack 1.39 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + Hsc 21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hsc 21 scores more

41%

level

23%

Ajax Amateurs scores more

36%

Hsc 21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hsc 21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff