Hrvatski vitez 1–0 Zmaj Makarska: Result & Stats

Hrvatski vitez

FT

1 – 0

Zmaj Makarska

10/16/2021

Third NL - Jug · South - 10Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hrvatski vitez67%

×Draw19%

Zmaj Makarska13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski vitezExpected goals in this matchZmaj Makarska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.79

Hrvatski vitez

2.10

Zmaj Makarska

0.79

Hrvatski vitez creates 166% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

1.99

creates per match

0.64

0.95

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez

1.99

Zmaj Makarska

0.64

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez

0.95

Zmaj Makarska

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Zmaj Makarska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw

87%

Hrvatski vitez or Zmaj Makarska

81%

Draw or Zmaj Makarska

33%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+

43%

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals

88%

Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals

62%

Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals

35%

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals

55%

Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals

19%

Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)

84%

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.10

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more

67%

level

19%

Zmaj Makarska scores more

13%

Hrvatski vitez at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff