Hrvatski vitez 4–0 HNK Hajduk Split II

Hrvatski vitez

FT

4 – 0

HNK Hajduk Split II

11/4/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 12Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hrvatski vitez73%

×Draw16%

HNK Hajduk Split II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski vitezExpected goals in this matchHNK Hajduk Split II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

0.88

Hrvatski vitez

2.53

HNK Hajduk Split II

0.88

Hrvatski vitez creates 187% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

1.99

creates per match

0.80

0.95

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez

1.99

HNK Hajduk Split II

0.80

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez

0.95

HNK Hajduk Split II

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw

89%

Hrvatski vitez or HNK Hajduk Split II

84%

Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II

27%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+

51%

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals

92%

Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals

71%

Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals

46%

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

59%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

22%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)

87%

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.53

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more

73%

level

16%

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

11%

Hrvatski vitez at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff