Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3–1 NK Zadar: Result & Stats

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

NK Zadar

M. Puškarić 90+2'

V. Majstorović 70' (pen), 28' (pen)

D. Župan 81'

8/24/2018

First NL · Round 1Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić (Zagreb)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac53%

×Draw24%

NK Zadar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski DragovoljacExpected goals in this matchNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.08

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.74

NK Zadar

1.08

Hrvatski Dragovoljac creates 61% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 13 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.25

NK Zadar

1.00

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.16

NK Zadar

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

NK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw

76%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or NK Zadar

76%

Draw or NK Zadar

47%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

29%

NK Zadar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

82%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

52%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

25%

NK Zadar 1+ goals

66%

NK Zadar 2+ goals

29%

NK Zadar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

69%

NK Zadar (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.25 + NK Zadar defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.74

NK Zadar attack 1.00 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

53%

level

24%

NK Zadar scores more

24%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

V. MajstorovićPenalty

57'

Z. Begić← J. Jurjević

68'

F. Surač← V. Smokrović

70'

V. MajstorovićPenalty

76'

P. Pejić← D. Hasan

81'

D. Župan

83'

T. Handžić← A. Repić

87'

M. Puškarić← V. Burić

90+3'

T. Hanžek← M. Alghoul

90+2'

M. Puškarić

Hrvatski

NK

1

Bender

4

Sarić

26

▼

Jurjević

15

Jerbić

10

⚽

Župan

2

▼

11

20

3

28

▼

21

26

97

13

5

86

27

7

⚽2

Majstorov

10

▼

Alghoul

28

▼

Burić

8

▼

Hasan

9

Matijašev

Manager: S. Bevc

76'▲P. Pejić←▼D. Hasan

87'▲M. Puškarić←▼V. Burić

90+3'▲T. Hanžek←▼M. Alghoul

Hrvatski Dragovoljac substitutes

22Pejić18Puškarić17Hanžek6Žugaj1Marić21Babin23Cerovec

Manager: K. Šunara

57'▲Z. Begić←▼J. Jurjević

68'▲F. Surač←▼V. Smokrović

83'▲T. Handžić←▼A. Repić

NK Zadar substitutes

16Begić22Surač9Handžić17Paponja5Iveljić12Pinčić19Renić

First NL: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3–1 NK Zadar

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat NK Zadar 3-1 in First NL on August 24, 2018.

Goals: V. Majstorović (28' pen, 70' pen), D. Župan (81'), M. Puškarić (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić (Zagreb).

Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs NK Zadar — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3–1 NK Zadar