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Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Hrvace — Second NL 2022

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hrvace
Hrvace
11/10/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 13Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac39%
×Draw25%
Hrvace36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.48
Hrvace
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.22
Hrvace
1.49

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.31
Hrvace
1.73

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw
64%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Hrvace
75%
Draw or Hrvace
61%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
19%
Hrvace wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
77%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
43%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
19%
Hrvace 1+ goals
75%
Hrvace 2+ goals
41%
Hrvace 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
52%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Hrvace defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hrvace attack 1.49 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
39%
level
25%
Hrvace scores more
36%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Hrvace

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Hrvace 3-0 in Second NL on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.