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Hrvace vs Trnje — Second NL 2022

Hrvace
Hrvace
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Trnje
Trnje
8/19/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvace54%
×Draw21%
Trnje25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvace
2.10
Trnje
1.36

Hrvace creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hrvace
2.18
Trnje
1.13

allows per match

Hrvace
1.60
Trnje
2.03

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw
75%
Hrvace or Trnje
79%
Draw or Trnje
46%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+
32%
Trnje wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals
88%
Hrvace 2+ goals
62%
Hrvace 3+ goals
35%
Trnje 1+ goals
74%
Trnje 2+ goals
39%
Trnje 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)
69%
Trnje (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Trnje away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 2.18 + Trnje defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.10

Trnje attack 1.13 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hrvace scores more
54%
level
21%
Trnje scores more
25%

Hrvace at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Hrvace 0–4 Trnje

Trnje beat Hrvace 4-0 in Second NL on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hrvace.