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Hrvace vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Hrvace
Hrvace
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
K. Kelez 82'
Unknown 36'
K. Luetic 2'
3/20/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hrvace63%
×Draw19%
NK Osijek II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvace
2.29
NK Osijek II
1.14

Hrvace creates 101% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hrvace
2.18
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Hrvace
1.60
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw
82%
Hrvace or NK Osijek II
81%
Draw or NK Osijek II
37%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+
40%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals
90%
Hrvace 2+ goals
66%
Hrvace 3+ goals
40%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
68%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
32%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)
78%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 2.18 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.29

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hrvace scores more
63%
level
19%
NK Osijek II scores more
18%

Hrvace at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
K. Luetic
36'
82'
K. Kelez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hrvace 3 – 0 NK Osijek II

Hrvace beat NK Osijek II 3-0 in Second NL on March 20, 2023.

Goals: K. Luetic (2'), ? (36'), K. Kelez (82').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hrvace.