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Hrvace vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Hrvace
Hrvace
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
10/7/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvace62%
×Draw19%
Jadran Poreč19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvace
2.46
Jadran Poreč
1.30

Hrvace creates 89% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hrvace
2.18
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Hrvace
1.60
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw
81%
Hrvace or Jadran Poreč
81%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
38%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+
41%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals
91%
Hrvace 2+ goals
70%
Hrvace 3+ goals
44%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
73%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
37%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)
77%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 2.18 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.46

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hrvace scores more
62%
level
19%
Jadran Poreč scores more
19%

Hrvace at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Hrvace 4–3 Jadran Poreč

Hrvace beat Jadran Poreč 4-3 in Second NL on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hrvace.