Hřebeč 1–3 Štětí: Result & Stats

Hřebeč

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Štětí

5/24/2025

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 27Stadion SK Hřebeč

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hřebeč49%

×Draw22%

Štětí29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HřebečExpected goals in this matchŠtětí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.48

Hřebeč

1.99

Štětí

1.48

Hřebeč creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 84 away

1.72

creates per match

1.25

1.72

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Hřebeč

1.72

Štětí

1.25

allows per match

Hřebeč

1.72

Štětí

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hřebeč+0.00on par

Štětí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hřebeč ↓

Štětí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hřebeč or draw

71%

Hřebeč or Štětí

78%

Draw or Štětí

51%

Winning margin

Hřebeč wins by 2+

28%

Štětí wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hřebeč 1+ goals

86%

Hřebeč 2+ goals

59%

Hřebeč 3+ goals

32%

Štětí 1+ goals

77%

Štětí 2+ goals

43%

Štětí 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hřebeč (draw refunded)

63%

Štětí (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hřebeč at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Štětí away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.26 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hřebeč attack 1.72 + Štětí defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.99

Štětí attack 1.25 + Hřebeč defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hřebeč scores more

49%

level

22%

Štětí scores more

29%

Hřebeč at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hřebeč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff