Hřebeč 0–1 Neratovice-Byškovice: Result & Stats

Hřebeč

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Neratovice-Byškovice

11/2/2024

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 13Stadion SK Hřebeč

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hřebeč35%

×Draw23%

Neratovice-Byškovice41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HřebečExpected goals in this matchNeratovice-Byškovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.67

Hřebeč

1.52

Neratovice-Byškovice

1.67

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 66 away

1.72

creates per match

1.62

1.72

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Hřebeč

1.72

Neratovice-Byškovice

1.62

allows per match

Hřebeč

1.72

Neratovice-Byškovice

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hřebeč+0.00on par

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hřebeč ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hřebeč or draw

59%

Hřebeč or Neratovice-Byškovice

77%

Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice

65%

Winning margin

Hřebeč wins by 2+

17%

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hřebeč 1+ goals

78%

Hřebeč 2+ goals

45%

Hřebeč 3+ goals

20%

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals

81%

Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals

50%

Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hřebeč (draw refunded)

46%

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hřebeč at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hřebeč attack 1.72 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Hřebeč defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hřebeč scores more

35%

level

23%

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more

41%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff