Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hranice vs Start Brno — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hranice
Hranice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Start Brno
Start Brno
8/18/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hranice39%
×Draw24%
Start Brno37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hranice
1.56
Start Brno
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hranice
1.37
Start Brno
1.39

allows per match

Hranice
1.63
Start Brno
1.76

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par
Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Start Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hranice or draw
63%
Hranice or Start Brno
76%
Draw or Start Brno
61%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+
19%
Start Brno wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals
79%
Hranice 2+ goals
46%
Hranice 3+ goals
21%
Start Brno 1+ goals
78%
Start Brno 2+ goals
44%
Start Brno 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)
51%
Start Brno (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Start Brno away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Start Brno defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.56

Start Brno attack 1.39 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hranice scores more
39%
level
24%
Start Brno scores more
37%

Hranice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hranice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hranice 1–2 Start Brno

Start Brno beat Hranice 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Hranice in Hranice.