Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hranice vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hranice
Hranice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
A. Fila 90+3'
P. Goj 77'
5/22/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 34Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hranice34%
×Draw25%
Slovan Rosice40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hranice
1.31
Slovan Rosice
1.45

Slovan Rosice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hranice
1.37
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Hranice
1.63
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hranice or draw
60%
Hranice or Slovan Rosice
75%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
66%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+
15%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals
73%
Hranice 2+ goals
38%
Hranice 3+ goals
14%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
42%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)
46%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hranice scores more
34%
level
25%
Slovan Rosice scores more
40%

Slovan Rosice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
D. Grygar
46'
A. Fila← A. Fila
55'
S. Charles← S. Charles
57'
V. Pak← V. Pak
66'
L. Zdrazil← L. Zdrazil
71'
P. Novak
72'
D. Trtek← D. Trtek
77'
P. Goj
82'
M. Sibal← M. Sibal
82'
V. Seidl← V. Seidl
86'
F. Adeshina← F. Adeshina
90+3'
A. Fila

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hranice 0–2 Slovan Rosice

Slovan Rosice beat Hranice 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 22, 2024.

Goals: P. Goj (77'), A. Fila (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion SK Hranice in Hranice.