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Hranice vs Hlučín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hranice
Hranice
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hlučín
Hlučín
4/19/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hranice32%
×Draw24%
Hlučín44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hranice
1.37
Hlučín
1.65

Hlučín creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hranice
1.37
Hlučín
1.67

allows per match

Hranice
1.63
Hlučín
1.36

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par
Hlučín+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Hlučín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hranice or draw
56%
Hranice or Hlučín
76%
Draw or Hlučín
68%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+
14%
Hlučín wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals
75%
Hranice 2+ goals
40%
Hranice 3+ goals
16%
Hlučín 1+ goals
81%
Hlučín 2+ goals
49%
Hlučín 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)
42%
Hlučín (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Hlučín away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Hlučín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hlučín attack 1.67 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hranice scores more
32%
level
24%
Hlučín scores more
44%

Hlučín at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hranice 0–3 Hlučín

Hlučín beat Hranice 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Hranice in Hranice.