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Hradec Králové vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zlin
Zlin
8/20/2023Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 5Malšovická Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Hradec Králové52%
×Draw25%
Zlin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové
1.56
Zlin
0.94

Hradec Králové creates 66% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 104 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové
1.40
Zlin
0.79

allows per match

Hradec Králové
1.08
Zlin
1.72

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw
77%
Hradec Králové or Zlin
75%
Draw or Zlin
48%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+
27%
Zlin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals
79%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
46%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
21%
Zlin 1+ goals
61%
Zlin 2+ goals
24%
Zlin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
69%
Zlin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.40 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zlin attack 0.79 + Hradec Králové defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hradec Králové scores more
52%
level
25%
Zlin scores more
23%

Hradec Králové at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Hradec Králové 2–0 Zlin

Hradec Králové beat Zlin 2-0 in Czech Liga on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Malšovická Aréna in Hradec Králové.