Hradec Králové 0–0 Mlada Boleslav: Result & Stats

Hradec Králové

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mlada Boleslav

2/24/2024

Czech Liga · Round 22Malšovická Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Hradec Králové45%

×Draw26%

Mlada Boleslav29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hradec KrálovéExpected goals in this matchMlada Boleslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.16

Hradec Králové

1.51

Mlada Boleslav

1.16

Hradec Králové creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 120 away

1.40

creates per match

1.23

1.08

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Hradec Králové

1.40

Mlada Boleslav

1.23

allows per match

Hradec Králové

1.08

Mlada Boleslav

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

Mlada Boleslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw

71%

Hradec Králové or Mlada Boleslav

74%

Draw or Mlada Boleslav

55%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+

23%

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals

78%

Hradec Králové 2+ goals

44%

Hradec Králové 3+ goals

19%

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

69%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

32%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

61%

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Mlada Boleslav away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.40 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.51

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.23 + Hradec Králové defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hradec Králové scores more

45%

level

26%

Mlada Boleslav scores more

29%

Hradec Králové at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff