Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
12/8/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 18Malšovická Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hradec Králové44%
×Draw25%
Baník Ostrava31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové
1.57
Baník Ostrava
1.27

Hradec Králové creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové
1.23
Baník Ostrava
1.04

allows per match

Hradec Králové
1.49
Baník Ostrava
1.91

finishing

Hradec Králové+0.44scores more
Baník Ostrava-0.04on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové ↓

Baník Ostrava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hradec Králové or draw
69%
Hradec Králové or Baník Ostrava
75%
Draw or Baník Ostrava
56%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové wins by 2+
22%
Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hradec Králové 1+ goals
79%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
46%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
21%
Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
72%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
36%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
59%
Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.49 · 6 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové attack 1.23 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

Baník Ostrava attack 1.04 + Hradec Králové defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hradec Králové scores more
44%
level
25%
Baník Ostrava scores more
31%

Hradec Králové at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Hradec Králové 0–1 Baník Ostrava

Baník Ostrava beat Hradec Králové 1-0 in Czech Liga on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Malšovická Aréna in Hradec Králové.