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Hradec Králové U19 vs Sigma Olomouc U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Hradec Králové U19
Hradec Králové U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
11/5/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 14Areál SCM Bavlna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hradec Králové U1940%
×Draw24%
Sigma Olomouc U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové U19
1.55
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 79 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.61
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.57

allows per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.35
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.49

finishing

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové U19 ↓

Sigma Olomouc U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hradec Králové U19 or draw
64%
Hradec Králové U19 or Sigma Olomouc U19
76%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc U19
60%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+
20%
Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals
79%
Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals
46%
Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals
20%
Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
77%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
43%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Sigma Olomouc U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.61 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 1.57 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hradec Králové U19 scores more
40%
level
24%
Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
36%

Hradec Králové U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hradec Králové U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hradec Králové U19 vs Sigma Olomouc U19

Sigma Olomouc U19 beat Hradec Králové U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Areál SCM Bavlna in Hradec Králové.