Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hradec Králové U19 vs Meteor Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Hradec Králové U19
Hradec Králové U19
CANC
09:00
Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
4/24/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 21Areál SCM Bavlna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hradec Králové U1964%
×Draw19%
Meteor Praha U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hradec Králové U19
2.27
Meteor Praha U19
1.09

Hradec Králové U19 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.61
Meteor Praha U19
0.83

allows per match

Hradec Králové U19
1.35
Meteor Praha U19
2.94

finishing

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par
Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové U19 ↓

Meteor Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hradec Králové U19 or draw
83%
Hradec Králové U19 or Meteor Praha U19
81%
Draw or Meteor Praha U19
36%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+
41%
Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals
90%
Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals
66%
Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals
39%
Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
66%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
30%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Meteor Praha U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.61 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.27

Meteor Praha U19 attack 0.83 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hradec Králové U19 scores more
64%
level
19%
Meteor Praha U19 scores more
17%

Hradec Králové U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hradec Králové U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hradec Králové U19 face Meteor Praha U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Hradec Králové U19 hosting Meteor Praha U19. Match starts April 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hradec Králové U19 host Meteor Praha U19 at Areál SCM Bavlna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.