Hradec Králové U19 1–1 Dukla Praha U19

Hradec Králové U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dukla Praha U19

10/18/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 11Areál SCM Bavlna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hradec Králové U1941%

×Draw24%

Dukla Praha U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hradec Králové U19Expected goals in this matchDukla Praha U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.49

Hradec Králové U19

1.63

Dukla Praha U19

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 60 away

1.61

creates per match

1.62

1.35

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Hradec Králové U19

1.61

Dukla Praha U19

1.62

allows per match

Hradec Králové U19

1.35

Dukla Praha U19

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par

Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové U19 ↓

Dukla Praha U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hradec Králové U19 or draw

65%

Hradec Králové U19 or Dukla Praha U19

76%

Draw or Dukla Praha U19

59%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+

21%

Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals

80%

Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals

48%

Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals

22%

Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals

77%

Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals

44%

Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 49 matches

Dukla Praha U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.61 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.62 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hradec Králové U19 scores more

41%

level

24%

Dukla Praha U19 scores more

35%

Hradec Králové U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hradec Králové U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff