Hradec Králové II 0–1 Ústí nad Labem

Hradec Králové II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ústí nad Labem

M. Turecek 79'

8/11/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 1Areál TJ Slavia Hradec Králové

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Hradec Králové II41%

×Draw23%

Ústí nad Labem36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hradec Králové IIExpected goals in this matchÚstí nad Labem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.54

Hradec Králové II

1.65

Ústí nad Labem

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 46 away

1.70

creates per match

1.83

1.25

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Hradec Králové II

1.70

Ústí nad Labem

1.83

allows per match

Hradec Králové II

1.25

Ústí nad Labem

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hradec Králové II+0.00on par

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hradec Králové II ↓

Ústí nad Labem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hradec Králové II or draw

64%

Hradec Králové II or Ústí nad Labem

77%

Draw or Ústí nad Labem

59%

Winning margin

Hradec Králové II wins by 2+

21%

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hradec Králové II 1+ goals

81%

Hradec Králové II 2+ goals

49%

Hradec Králové II 3+ goals

23%

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

79%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

45%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hradec Králové II (draw refunded)

53%

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hradec Králové II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hradec Králové II attack 1.70 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.83 + Hradec Králové II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hradec Králové II scores more

41%

level

23%

Ústí nad Labem scores more

36%

Hradec Králové II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hradec Králové II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Hlavac← V. Baloun

65'

V. Simon← V. Simon

73'

Marquinho← M. Cervenka

73'

D. Richter← V. de Oliveira Veneranda

79'

M. Turecek

81'

M. Musil← M. Musil

81'

M. Hampl← M. Hampl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff