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HPS W vs NJS W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

HPS W
HPS W
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
NJS W
NJS W
3/26/2022Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 1Tali halli tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

HPS W70%
×Draw16%
NJS W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS W
2.83
NJS W
1.22

HPS W creates 132% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 12 away

creates per match

HPS W
1.83
NJS W
0.83

allows per match

HPS W
1.61
NJS W
3.83

finishing

HPS W+0.00on par
NJS W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS W ↓

NJS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

HPS W or draw
86%
HPS W or NJS W
84%
Draw or NJS W
30%

Winning margin

HPS W wins by 2+
49%
NJS W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

HPS W 1+ goals
94%
HPS W 2+ goals
77%
HPS W 3+ goals
53%
NJS W 1+ goals
70%
NJS W 2+ goals
34%
NJS W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

HPS W (draw refunded)
83%
NJS W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 64 matches

NJS W away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS W attack 1.83 + NJS W defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.83

NJS W attack 0.83 + HPS W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

HPS W scores more
70%
level
16%
NJS W scores more
14%

HPS W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "HPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HPS W vs NJS W

HPS W and NJS W drew 3-3 in Kansallinen Liiga on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Tali halli tekonurmi in Helsinki.