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HPS vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

HPS
HPS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamnadvanced
4/28/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 64Briotech Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HPS21%
×Draw19%
Mariehamn60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS
1.31
Mariehamn
2.34

Mariehamn creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

creates per match

HPS
1.57
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

HPS
2.29
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

HPS+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

HPS or draw
40%
HPS or Mariehamn
81%
Draw or Mariehamn
79%

Winning margin

HPS wins by 2+
8%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

HPS 1+ goals
73%
HPS 2+ goals
38%
HPS 3+ goals
14%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
90%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
67%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

HPS (draw refunded)
26%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS attack 1.57 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + HPS defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HPS scores more
21%
level
19%
Mariehamn scores more
60%

Mariehamn at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HPS 1 – 2 Mariehamn

Mariehamn beat HPS 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 28, 2026.

The match was played at Briotech Arena.