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HPS vs LePa — Suomen Cup 2018

HPS
HPS
FT
5 – 0
LePa
LePa
3/11/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölön Pallokenttä 6 tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HPS14%
×Draw13%
LePa73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS
1.79
LePa
3.98

LePa creates 122% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

HPS
1.57
LePa
5.67

allows per match

HPS
2.29
LePa
2.00

finishing

HPS+0.00on par
LePa+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS ↓

LePa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

HPS or draw
27%
HPS or LePa
87%
Draw or LePa
86%

Winning margin

HPS wins by 2+
6%
LePa wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

HPS 1+ goals
83%
HPS 2+ goals
53%
HPS 3+ goals
26%
LePa 1+ goals
98%
LePa 2+ goals
90%
LePa 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

HPS (draw refunded)
16%
LePa (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

LePa away — creates 5.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS attack 1.57 + LePa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

LePa attack 5.67 + HPS defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 3.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

HPS scores more
14%
level
13%
LePa scores more
73%

LePa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "LePa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HPS 5 – 0 LePa

HPS beat LePa 5-0 in Suomen Cup on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä 6 tn in Helsinki.