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HPS vs KäPa — Suomen Cup 2018

HPS
HPS
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
KäPa
KäPa
4/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundBriotech Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HPS20%
×Draw18%
KäPa62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS
1.54
KäPa
2.75

KäPa creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

HPS
1.57
KäPa
3.20

allows per match

HPS
2.29
KäPa
1.50

finishing

HPS+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

HPS or draw
38%
HPS or KäPa
82%
Draw or KäPa
80%

Winning margin

HPS wins by 2+
9%
KäPa wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

HPS 1+ goals
79%
HPS 2+ goals
45%
HPS 3+ goals
20%
KäPa 1+ goals
93%
KäPa 2+ goals
75%
KäPa 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

HPS (draw refunded)
24%
KäPa (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

KäPa away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS attack 1.57 + KäPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

KäPa attack 3.20 + HPS defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

HPS scores more
20%
level
18%
KäPa scores more
62%

KäPa at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KäPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HPS 0 – 4 KäPa

KäPa beat HPS 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2025.

The match was played at Briotech Arena in Helsinki.