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HPS II vs PK-35 — Suomen Cup 2018

HPS II
HPS II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
PK-35
PK-35advanced
4/15/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HPS II8%
×Draw11%
PK-3581%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS II
1.15
PK-35
3.63

PK-35 creates 216% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

HPS II
1.75
PK-35
3.77

allows per match

HPS II
3.50
PK-35
0.54

finishing

HPS II+0.00on par
PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS II ↓

PK-35 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

HPS II or draw
19%
HPS II or PK-35
89%
Draw or PK-35
92%

Winning margin

HPS II wins by 2+
3%
PK-35 wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

HPS II 1+ goals
68%
HPS II 2+ goals
32%
HPS II 3+ goals
11%
PK-35 1+ goals
97%
PK-35 2+ goals
87%
PK-35 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

HPS II (draw refunded)
9%
PK-35 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

PK-35 away — creates 3.77, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS II attack 1.75 + PK-35 defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

PK-35 attack 3.77 + HPS II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

HPS II scores more
8%
level
11%
PK-35 scores more
81%

PK-35 at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HPS II vs PK-35

PK-35 beat HPS II 5-1 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2026.