Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

HPS II vs EBK — Suomen Cup 2018

HPS II
HPS II
FT
1 – 5
EBK
EBK
3/29/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundPaloheinän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HPS II11%
×Draw12%
EBK76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS II
1.48
EBK
3.75

EBK creates 153% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

HPS II
1.75
EBK
4.00

allows per match

HPS II
3.50
EBK
1.20

finishing

HPS II+0.00on par
EBK+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS II ↓

EBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

HPS II or draw
24%
HPS II or EBK
88%
Draw or EBK
89%

Winning margin

HPS II wins by 2+
4%
EBK wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

HPS II 1+ goals
77%
HPS II 2+ goals
43%
HPS II 3+ goals
19%
EBK 1+ goals
97%
EBK 2+ goals
88%
EBK 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

HPS II (draw refunded)
13%
EBK (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

EBK away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS II attack 1.75 + EBK defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

EBK attack 4.00 + HPS II defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

HPS II scores more
11%
level
12%
EBK scores more
76%

EBK at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "EBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HPS II vs EBK

EBK beat HPS II 5-1 in Suomen Cup on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Paloheinän tekonurmi in Helsinki.