HP-47 4–1 Nastolan Nopsa: Result & Stats

HP-47

4 – 1

Nastolan Nopsa

3/15/2025

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundLahden Kisapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HP-4757%

×Draw16%

Nastolan Nopsa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HP-47Expected goals in this matchNastolan Nopsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.83

2.67

HP-47

3.83

Nastolan Nopsa

2.67

HP-47 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

3.33

2.00

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

HP-47

2.67

Nastolan Nopsa

3.33

allows per match

HP-47

2.00

Nastolan Nopsa

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HP-47+0.00on par

Nastolan Nopsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HP-47 ↓

Nastolan Nopsa →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–32%

1–41%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–35%

4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

87%13%4.5

75%25%

Double chance

HP-47 or draw

73%

HP-47 or Nastolan Nopsa

84%

Draw or Nastolan Nopsa

43%

Winning margin

HP-47 wins by 2+

39%

Nastolan Nopsa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

HP-47 1+ goals

98%

HP-47 2+ goals

88%

HP-47 3+ goals

71%

Nastolan Nopsa 1+ goals

93%

Nastolan Nopsa 2+ goals

74%

Nastolan Nopsa 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

HP-47 (draw refunded)

68%

Nastolan Nopsa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

89%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HP-47 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Nastolan Nopsa away — creates 3.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HP-47 attack 2.67 + Nastolan Nopsa defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.83

Nastolan Nopsa attack 3.33 + HP-47 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

HP-47 scores more

57%

level

16%

Nastolan Nopsa scores more

27%

HP-47 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "HP-47 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff